TPM:
Our full road map to what's ahead is after the jump.
Michigan Primary — January 15
Democrats: Not only has this rogue primary been stripped of its national delegates, but only one of the top-tier candidates will be on the ballot. The dispute between the state and national parties led Barack Obama and John Edwards — but not Hillary Clinton — to remove their names. So the choices on the ballot will be Hillary, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel and "uncommitted." As a result, supporters of Obama and Edwards, such as Obama backer John Conyers, are encouraging their people to get out and vote for "uncommitted" as a vote of no confidence in Hillary Clinton. Hillary currently leads "uncommitted" by a strong margin in all the polls, even exceeding the 50% mark against this literally non-existent competition.
Republicans: The big issue here is job losses, with the Republican pitches revolving entirely around who can jump-start the state's economy. After he pulled his ads in Florida and South Carolina, Mitt Romney appears to be making his last stand in his native state, where his father was governor in the 1960s. Meanwhile, 2000 primary winner John McCain is hoping to ride to another win here, with a campaign that is stressing his experience, honesty and electability in an effort to win over independents and some Dems voting in the Republican primary due to a lack of a serious Dem contest, the same constituencies he won over in 2000.
Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee has heavily courted the state's evangelical community while emphasizing his working-class background. Romney currently leads in most polls, but McCain has a narrow edge in a few. A victory for McCain would help seal his new-found frontrunner status; a defeat for Romney would probably put the final nail in his coffin.
Nevada Caucuses — January 19
Democrats: This one is turning into the next big contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Hillary has the support of many establishment Democrats in the state, such as Congresswoman Shelly Berkley, and the head of her state campaign is none other than Harry Reid's son. Obama has the support of the state SEIU and the Culinary Workers Union, which are expected to deliver a lot of members to the caucus. The first poll released this year has Obama up by two points, a statistical dead heat.
Hillary's approach to the state has been to do build an organization from many of the state party regulars, such as Berkley and Reid, in an effort to accomplish build up overwhelming support and re-establish her frontrunner status. Meanwhile, Obama's approach to the state has been to do court those unions who oppose Hillary in an effort to get their members out to the caucus and put him over the top. The fact that these unions went for Obama is also a hint that John Edwards will have serious trouble locking down new labor support, as anti-Hillary forces seek a united front with Obama.
Republicans: This one seems to be slipping under the radar, because it's on the same day as the South Carolina GOP contest. Assuming he's still in the race after Michigan, Mitt Romney might have a built-in base here — the state's population is over 10% Mormon, and they could well make up an even higher percentage of Republican voters. The latest poll gives McCain a narrow lead, but anything could change.
Romney's approach to the state has been a lot like the other states — he's thrown a lot of money at the place. Meanwhile, look out for McCain to get new support from state party leaders as he becomes the new establishment candidate.
South Carolina Primary — January 19 for the GOP, January 26 for the Dems
Democrats: This state has to be considered a must-win for Obama, because African-Americans are expected to make up roughly half of the Dem electorate. Obama currently has a lead in the polls, with Hillary in second and John Edwards in a very distant third. Hillary has sought to make inroads with black voters, while Obama has been making progress on solidifying their support. Edwards, meanwhile, is making a stand here based on his working-class upbringing — and it might just be his last stand, judging by his apparent pull-out from Nevada.
Republicans: This state will be make or break for Mike Huckabee, who has to prove that he can solidify evangelical support for additional wins after Iowa, and build a victory around his social conservatism. Some new polls have found John McCain taking a narrow lead, with high undecideds, but it remains to be seen if he can sustain the post-New Hampshire bump in the face of what will likely be increased scrutiny of his proposals on immigration. McCain also has the support of many in the party establishment, including Senator Lindsey Graham.
Romney spent much of the last year courting evangelicals in the state, even winning the endorsement of Bob Jones III despite his own Mormonism. But despite all the evangelical leaders backing him, many of the followers are going for Huckabee — and Romney has now pulled his ads from the state and is risking it all on Michigan.
Louisiana — January 22 caucus for the Republicans, February 9 primary for the Democrats.
Democrats: If the Democratic nomination is not already decided on February 5, then this state will be important for Barack Obama to win due to the high proportion of black voters among the state's Dems.
Republicans: If Mike Huckabee is still in the race after South Carolina, then this state will be a must-win for him, with its population of evangelical voters and immediate proximity to Arkansas. John McCain will probably be building support as the new establishment candidate, as well.
Florida Primary — January 29
Democrats: This rogue primary has been stripped of its delegates, but the candidates nevertheless remain on the ballot. Retirees in South Florida will probably go for Hillary by a wide margin, while the state's minority voters are a natural base for Obama. Hillary currently leads in the polls, but Obama isn't too far behind.
Hillary has built up a strong base of support with the state's Democratic establishment, while Obama has gone for the support minority voters as well as some white liberals, such as Congressman Robert Wexler.
Republicans: This state is one of Rudy Giuliani's last hopes, where he's spending heavily as part of his dubious big-state strategy. Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee is picking up evangelical support in northern Florida. Also, expect John McCain to pick up establishment GOP support. The polling here is divergent, giving leads to either Huckabee or Giuliani, while we have yet to see what the impact of McCain's post-New Hampshire boost will be.
While Giuliani has blanketed the state with TV ads, and Huckabee is courting evangelicals, Romney spent much of 2007 building support with the state party establishment, including many in the Cuban community as well as party officials close to Jeb Bush.
Maine Caucus - February 1 for the Republicans, February 10 for the Democrats.
Republicans: This one should go easily to John McCain. The campaigns haven't focused heavily here, and he has the support of both U.S. Senators.
Democrats: In all likelihood, the Democratic nomination will have been decided on Super Tuesday, five days earlier.
Super Tuesday — February 5
This is it, the day when both parties will likely pick their nominees if they haven't already.
Democrats: The primaries will be in Alabama, Alaska (caucus), American Samoa, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucus), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (caucus), Illinois, Kansas, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (caucus), New York, North Dakota (caucus), Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah. A total of 1,698 pledged delegates will be picked on this day. It's unlikely that one candidate will reach the goal on this day, but they could probably come so close that a victory is a foregone conclusion anyway, thus forcing the competition out.
Republicans: The primaries will be in Alabama, Alaska (caucus), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucus), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota (caucus), Missouri, Montana (caucus), New Jersey, New York, North Dakota (caucus), Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia (state party convention).
For the Republicans, many of these primaries are winner-take-all, instead of awarding delegates by proportional representation or at the district level. As such, if one candidate does especially well this day, he'll take a huge portion of the delegates and possibly even the nomination itself.
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