Hat tip to TPM Election Central:
Alabama — Tie Between McCain and Huck: The most recent poll, conducted before Florida, made it an even 27%-27% race, with Romney at 15%. Huckabee's strength among evangelicals could help him win in the Deep South, or McCain's overall momentum will clinch this one. It could go either way. Total Delegates: 45, By district.
Alaska — Unknown: There has been no recent poll in this state, so it's hard to know exactly what the situation is. Huckabee has the support of longtime Congressman Don Young — but given Young's ethical problems as of late, that might not be such a great help. We'll see what happens on Tuesday. Total Delegates: 26, Proportional.
Arizona — McCain Way Ahead: McCain will easily win his home state's winner-take-all primary. Total Delegates: 50, WTA.
Arkansas — Huckabee Favored: There has been no recent polling here, but you have to figure Mike Huckabee will run well in the state where he was governor for over ten years. Total Delegates: 31, by district.
California — McCain Ahead: Recent poll has given McCain leads of around ten points, though the most recent one shows the race against MItt Romney to be a bit tighter. However, McCain should get a huge boost from the support of Arnold Schwarzenegger as well as Rudy Giuliani, who himself had been previously running strong here. Total Delegates: 170, by district.
Colorado — Romney Way Ahead: The most recent poll shows Romney ahead of McCain by 19 points. This makes sense in the context of right-wing opposition to McCain on immigration — after all, this state is the land of Tancredo. Total Delegates: 43, proportional.
Connecticut — McCain Way Ahead: Mitt Romney might have Massachusetts in his corner, but it looks like the rest of New England is McCain country. McCain most notable Connecticut endorsement is none other than Joe Lieberman, and he's also supported by Gov. Jodi Rell. Total Delegates: 27, WTA.
Delaware — Unknown: There has been no recent polling Delaware so we honestly don't know what's happening. Mitt Romney's pitch might work with state businesses, but you have to think McCain has the overall momentum. Total Delegates: 15, WTA.
Georgia — Close Race: Polling from as recently as a week ago gave Mike Huckabee a double-digit lead, but the latest polls have McCain or Romney narrowly ahead. McCain has picked up the support of both the state's Senators, while Romney has a few members of Congress and Huckabee is relying on the evangelic vote. Total Delegates: 69, by district.
Illinois — McCain Narrowly Ahead: John McCain has taken a single-digit lead in recent polls here, aided by a combination of his momentum and the support of such prominent Illinois politicians as former Gov. Jim Edgar. Former Speaker Dennis Hastert, a longtime McCain antagonist, is aggressively backing Romney. One variable: The special election primary in Hastert's district may cause higher turnout relative to the rest of the state. Total Delegates: 67, by district.
Massachusetts — Romney Way Ahead: — Mitt Romney should have no trouble winning a strong majority in his home state. But there's one problem for Mitt: The primary here is proportional, not winner-take-all. Thus John McCain will get some delegates in Massachusetts, while Romney won't get any from Arizona to balance it out. Total Delegates: 40, proportional.
Minnesota — McCain Ahead: A recent poll put McCain ahead by 2-1 against his closest competitor, Mike Huckabee. McCain has long had the backing of Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who may well end up on McCain's short list for vice president. Previous polling had put Rudy Giuliani ahead, but McCain rose as Rudy fell. Total Delegates: 38, by district.
Missouri — McCain Ahead: Recent polling has given John McCain the lead by four points over Romney and six points against Mike Huckabee. Romney made a good effort to court social conservatives, winning the endorsements of Gov. Matt Blunt and former Sen. Jim Talent, while Mike Huckabee is courting his usual base of working-class evangelicals. McCain's shot to the top is a very recent delopment.Total Delegates: 55, WTA.
Montana — Unknown: There has been no recent polling for the Montana caucus, but one can plausibly see any of the three candidates having some appeal here. If it comes down to just general awareness of the national race, McCain should win. If there's considerable doubt about him on illegal immigration, Romney or Huckabee could draw some votes. Total Delegates: 22, WTA.
New Jersey — McCain Way Ahead: Much of the state party establishment had been backing Giuliani, but with him gone they're all lining up for McCain. The latest poll puts him ahead 48%-25% here, where the state GOP is based around moderate suburban voters and not social conservatives. Total Delegates: 49, WTA.
New York — McCain Way Ahead: McCain was ahead of Romney 2-1 even before Rudy Giuliani dropped out, and Rudy's support has boosted him to a lead of nearly 35 points. The state Republican committee has also come in line, switching its endorsement from Rudy to McCain. Total Delegates: 98, WTA.
North Dakota — Unknown: There has been no recent polling —nor much attention by the candidates — in this small state. It might just come down to the national trend, favoring McCain. Total Delegates: 23, WTA.
Oklahoma — McCain Ahead: Mike Huckabee originally led in this Bible-Belt state, but the latest poll put John McCain ahead by nearly ten points. This was perhaps due in part to the endorsement of McCain by Sen. Tom Coburn, a champion of the religious right and a fellow anti-pork crusader. Total Delegates: 38, by district.
Tennessee — Close Race Between McCain And Huck: Native son Fred Thompson was originally running ahead here, but a recent poll put Mike Huckabee ahead, and another gave John McCain the lead. Another poll calls it as a statistical dead heat. This race may just come down to McCain as the national Republican candidate, versus Huckabee as the Southern Republican candidate. Total Delegates: 52, proportional and by district — WTA if one candidate gets over 50%.
Utah — Monolithically Mitt: Mitt Romney will win Utah, with its Mormon population, by an extraordinary margin. WTA Total Delegates: 33, WTA.
West Virginia — Unknown: There has been no polling here, with the delegates selected at a state convention rather than a primary or caucuses. But one might think Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee would have a big opening her, as McCain's positions on global warming wouldn't go over too well in a coal state. Total Delegates: 27, WTA
1 comment:
Nice numbers but let's see if these are correct. Alot of surprises will come to light. I look for Ron Paul to surprise alot of people Feb.5th.
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