Tuesday, July 17, 2007

The NIE and Iraq: ?????

From TPMmuckraker:

Here's the sum total of what today's NIE gives on Iraq's relationship to al-Qaeda:

(W)e assess that al-Qa'ida will probably seek to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI), its most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed a desire to attack the Homeland. In addition, we assess that its association with AQI helps al-Qa'ida to energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources and to recruit and indoctrinate operatives, including for Homeland attack.

An April 2006 NIE, which remains classified, plainly said the war "has made the overall terrorism problem worse," as one intelligence official told the New York Times. It's hard to see how this could be controversial: there would be no al-Qaeda in Iraq -- which the National Intelligence Estimate today says "energize(s) the broader Sunni extremist community" -- had there been no invasion.

Yet the declassified key judgments of the NIE don't address Iraq -- except for a few bizarrely constructed sentences. What gives with the NIE's weaselly wording?

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